Compound Risk Specialist (Consultant)

Terms of Reference: Compound Risk Specialist

Global Crisis Risk Platform

Fragility Conflict and Violence (FCV)

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Duration: 25th July 2022 – June 30th, 2023

Number of days: up to 65

Appointment Type: Short-Term Consultant

Location: Washington, DC (or remote)

TTL: Lindsey Jones

Hiring Manager: Nabila Assaf

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Background

Developing countries face an increasingly complex risk landscape, marked by interconnected hazards that threaten to roll back the development gains of recent decades and undermine efforts to end extreme poverty by 2030. Natural hazards like floods and extreme weather events destroy crops, livestock assets, and water and sanitation, sparking disease and pest outbreaks. Armed conflicts drive refugee flows, exposing vulnerable populations to food insecurity and malnutrition. Financial crises stoke mass protests and civil unrest that can stress the social fabric of a society, and create broader instability and violence.

In 2016, the WBG reviewed its crisis-related funding mechanisms and instruments, an exercise that resulted in the establishment of the Global Crisis Response Platform (GCRP), now renamed the Global Crisis Risk Platform (GCRP). On July 19, 2018, the WBG’s Board of Executive Directors discussed, and strongly supported management’s proposals to fully operationalize the GCRP. The primary objective of the GCRP is to strengthen the Bank Group’s ability to provide a more coherent and strategic approach to identifying and mitigating crisis risks in client countries before they turn into full-blown crises.

A core objective of the GCRP is the design of a Compound Risk Monitor (CRM) to increase the World Bank’s institutional capacity to prepare for, and respond to, complex crises that threaten the organization’s twin goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity.

The CRM is designed to be an early warning system to track country-level compound risks drawing on a wide range of pre-existing risk databases and indexes. It allows easy identification of ‘hotspot’ areas: countries and regions where multiple compounding threats may substantially set back progress on economic development and poverty alleviation. To do so, the Monitor tracks interactions between a variety of risks grouped into seven distinct components – ranging from food security to COVID response capacities – each with the potential for significant fiscal and/or security implications for countries. The Monitor also focuses on two critical time periods with separate country-level ratings for each, including: existing risk (providing a static snapshot of current and historic risk conditions); and emerging risk (acting as a dynamic early warning of changing risk conditions likely to occur in the months ahead).

Description of activities

Contributions from the Specialist will go towards supporting the CRM team in designing and implementing a scanning exercise that summarizes data-led elements of the CRM early warning system into concise, policy-relevant briefings that can be shared with management and other relevant stakeholders across the Bank.

Under the guidance of the TTL, the Specialist will support the following activities:

1. DESIGN AND TRIAL A CRM HORIZON SCAN METHODOLOGY – 30 days

• Provide a stock-take of relevant horizon scan exercises. Carry out a thorough review of existing horizon scan initiatives drawn from a range of sectoral application within and outside of the Bank. The Analyst will compile a briefing of common traits and successful design features that may be of relevance to the CRM
• Support the design of a CRM scanning methodology. Assist the CRM team in identifying a suitable methodology for shortlisting hotspot countries by combining quantitative information from the CRM with qualitative insights. The Analyst will also support the team in designing a survey and consultation exercise as means of validating priority countries and threats identified by the CRM.
• Propose CRM Scan design options. Suggest a number of design and layout options for outreach of the CRM horizon scanning, based on the review of similar exercises. The layout will seek to summarize key policy-relevant messages by combining graphics, risk overviews and policy recommendations.

1. DRAFTING QUARTERLY HORIZON SCANS – 30 days

• Draft support CRM materials and briefs. Provide inputs and draft CRM outreach products, including quarterly horizon scans, targeting CMUs, regional teams and other relevant stakeholders across the WBG.
• Conduct expert validation surveys. Carry out quarterly surveys with GPs, Regional Teams and risk management experts across the WBG as an input to CRM horizon scans.
• Liaise with relevant WBG risk monitoring teams. Support engagement and data sharing with teams across the WBG, including the Operational Risk Department and (CROOR) and Operations Policy and Country Services (OPCS).
• Facilitate CRM outreach. Support the CRM team in promoting the tool internally and externally, including through presentations to relevant Global Practices, Regional teams and CMUs as well as and other stakeholders within the Bank.

1. CRM MAINTENANCE, OUTREACH AND UPTAKE – 5 days

• Provide analytical support to the CRM. The analyst will provide inputs to improve the analytical framework used in developing the CRM, including the identification of relevant real-time metrics, together with the wider GCRP analytical team.

Selection criteria

• Advanced university degree in a relevant discipline and at least 5 years of relevant experience in crisis preparedness, risk management, or risk communication.
• Experience in designing risk outlooks and facilitating operational consensus building across sectoral teams is a strong plus

Advanced design, writing and communication skills used to convey complex ideas concisely and convincingly.

• Strong inter-personal skills. Ability to function effectively in multi-disciplinary and multi-cultural teams.
• Candidates who bring direct personal and professional experience and background from diverse FCV or forced displacement affected backgrounds preferred
• Familiarity with World Bank processes and procedures is desired.
• Demonstrated ability to work independently on complex problems
• Fluent spoken and writing skills English. Additional languages are an advantage.