SOMALIA PROGRAM-YOUTH DEVELOPMENT AND LIVELIHOOD PROGRAM- 1ST OCT 2020- 30TH SEPT 2023

1.0 Background
The American Friends Service Committee (AFSC) is a Quaker organization that includes people of various faiths who are committed to shift the mindsets that prioritize militarized approaches over peaceful and people-centered solutions, promotes sustainable economic systems that benefit everyone, rather than those that favor the wealthy and exacerbate inequality and environmental crises and challenges forced displacement and champions the dignity and rights of all people on the move. With a vision of a just, peaceful, and sustainable world free of violence, inequality, and oppression and a mission Guided by the Quaker belief in the divine light of each person, AFSC works with communities and partners worldwide to challenge unjust systems and promote lasting peace. As such, We respect the equality, worth, and dignity of all people and regard no one as our enemy, seek right relationship with all life on a sustainable Earth, accepts that our understanding of truth is incomplete and seek ever deeper insights from lived experience, we trust the Spirit to guide discernment of our collective actions. We assert the transforming power of love and active nonviolence as a force for justice and reconciliation.

2.0 Somalia context

Somalia is one of the most complex and protracted states of crisis anywhere in the world. For the past 30 years Somalia has experienced political instability and frequent conflict, coupled with environmental and economic shocks. These crises have resulted in widespread displacement, food insecurity and high levels of poverty. Somalia has an intricate societal make up, with complex dynamics governing geographic areas, clans and ethnic groups. Following the collapse of the government led by dictator Siad Barre in1991, clan-based political coalitions and alliances fought for control throughout the country, with no effective federal government in place. A de facto government in the north declared the formation of an independent Republic of Somaliland in 1991 and continues to seek international recognition of its sovereignty. In 1998, Puntland’s leaders in the northeast declared the territory an autonomous state within a federal Somalia. Both regions are in effect self-governing and maintain relative stability in contrast to southern and central Somalia, which remains engulfed in inter-clan political violence. From early 2000, conflict and security dynamics in southern and central Somalia became increasingly complex and internationalized, as Islamist militant groups filled the security vacuum and internationally backed forces conducted counter-insurgency operations.

Somalia has taken painstaking steps from being a ‘failed’ to a ‘fragile’ state. Substantial progress has been made in establishing federal and state institutions, although political transition is still underway. In 2004, a transitional federal government was established. In 2012, Somalia selected a new president and federal parliament and adopted a provisional constitution, completing the transition to the new FGS. 2017 marked another turning point, as the FGS completed its first political transition since 2012, electing a new parliament and president, through a limited, indirect electoral process. This triggered additional international recognition and support for the FGS. Somalia remains, however, an extremely fragile political and security environment. Although al-Shabaab has been substantially weakened, it still retains control in large areas of central and southern Somalia and can carry out terrorist attacks. Despite progress in building Somalia’s security architecture, the government continues to depend heavily on AU forces to maintain security in strategic areas. In addition, Somalia’s political situation remains fragile despite progress in its political transition; the path towards democratic elections has been challenging and the key issues relating to the relationship between the federal government and federal member states remain unresolved. Furthermore, government infrastructure, institutions and services are still in their infancy, and international agencies continue to provide many basic services.

2.1 The life situation of the people in the planned project area
In the context of ongoing armed conflict and political instability, Somalia has experienced persistent food insecurity, displacement, health and protection crises over the past 30 years. Three-fifths of Somalia’s economy is based on agriculture, with livestock-raising the biggest sector. The dominance of pastoralism and rain-fed agriculture makes the population highly vulnerable to climate shocks and natural disasters. Furthermore, Somalia has high rates of poverty, with 69% of the population living under the international poverty line of US$1.90 a day and an additional 10% living within 20% of it. This means that almost 80% of the population are especially vulnerable to climate related shocks, conflict and economic disruption.

The drought conditions in Somalia are worsening and there is the possibility of famine like the one 2010/2011, with about 4.3 million people in need of urgent humanitarian assistance. Moreover, the weatherman forecasts a fourth consecutive below-average rains during the long rainy season during the April to June rainy season. Given forecast La Nina conditions are expected to persist in April 2022, ongoing drought in Somalia will worsen and possibly continue at least through mid2022. Worst affected areas will be central and southern parts of the country.
Mogadishu;
The central government controls only part of the country, and formal economic activity is largely restricted to urban areas such as Mogadishu and a few regional capitals. Almost 9 of 10 Somali households are deprived in at least one dimension: monetary, electricity, education, or water and sanitation. Nearly 7 of 10 households suffer in two or more dimensions. Nomadic populations suffer the most, while urban dwellers experience the least deprivation, 43% live on less than dollar a day.
In Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab have committed and continue to commit serious abuses, including forcibly recruiting children and adults, arbitrary executions, notably of those it accused of spying for the government and foreign forces, and extorting “taxes” through threats. Al-Shabaab attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure using improvised explosive devices and, suicide bombings have resulted in hundreds of civilian deaths and injuries in Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab continues to prohibit most nongovernmental organizations and all UN agencies from working in areas under its control.

The group continues to blockade government-controlled towns and attack civilians who violate the blockades, destroying goods and vehicles. “If nothing is done, it is projected that by the summer of this year 2022, 350,000 of the 1.4 million severely malnourished children in the country, will perish,” warns Adam Abdelmoula from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Al-Shabaab still controls tracts of rural central, southern, and western Somalia, including in the regions of Lower and Middle Juba, Lower and Middle Shabelle, Hiraan, Gedo, Bay and Bakool, Mudug, Galguduud, and Puntland, as well as major roads throughout the country.

Dhobley;
Dhobley is a strategic divisional administration of the Afmadow District located south-western Somalia’s lower juba region. Dhobley has been a strategic border town for commerce especially animal and essential food commodities to the Kenyan town in addition to the huge numbers of refugees traveling to and from Dadaab that transit in the town. Mainly pastoralists inhibit Dhobley. Decades of conflicts and instability in Southern Somalia, including the absence of a functioning local government capable of providing essential services and no support from a functioning central government, have significantly affected the local population.

The Jubaland administration currently manages Dhobley town, like many lower Juba towns, with support from the Kenyan contingent of AMISOM, who have a sizeable military base in Dhobley town. The general security and livelihoods of the local community have improved since the ouster of the Al Shabaab with the help of the Kenyan defense forces. Dhobley town is currently stable.

Bosaso – Puntland;
The State is a key source, transit and, to some extent, destination for migratory flows. Puntland continues to have an influx of migrants from neighboring countries through irregular migration routes, especially from Ethiopia. In addition, a growing number of Somalis are returning from Yemen. Ethiopian migrants continue to settle along the migration route in Somaliland and Puntland, and while the number of migrants traveling through Somalia to Yemen is expected to increase, it is also expected that a higher number of Yemeni and Ethiopians will arrive in Puntland in 2022
seeking asylum.
COVID-19 continues to impact the lives of migrants in already vulnerable communities, including internally displaced populations. Puntland has limited capacity to respond and prevent the spread of COVID-19 and mitigate its socioeconomic impact. Though restriction of mobility has been mostly lifted, the ripple of socioeconomic effects of the pandemic has not left the population untouched.
The IDPs, migrants and returnees may face higher obstacles to recovery, as their reserves, assets and social capital are depleted.
3.0 Evaluation Objective
3.1 Purpose, objectives, and uses of the evaluation to inform project stakeholders
The overall objective of the Midterm evaluation is to assess the achievement of the project objectives against indicators, its outcomes as well as assess the program’s performance, effectiveness, impact, efficiency, relevance, timeliness, and sustainability.

The project set out to contribute to the following goal: “Somali youth engagement in nation’s leadership and peacebuilding has improved” and the objectives below.

1) Youth in Mogadishu and Dhobley engage in peacebuilding and economic development in their communities actively. The following indicators contribute to the achievement of this objective:

a) 1,200 (400F and 800M) youth are engaged in policy influencing platforms in their communities.

b) Out of 400 female youth trained, at least 100 have organized at least one peacebuilding dialogue forum in their communities.

c) 800 (265f) youth trained in enterprise development report that they are engaged in income generating activities making them self-reliant.

2) The advocacy work of local civil society organizations has positively influenced local
decision making in favor of migrant rights and protection. The indictor below will contribute to the achievement of this objective:
a) Local decision makers support activities towards a peaceful co-existence in the communities of Bosaso (these activities will be specified and quantified within the first
year of the project).

AFSC has used the following methods during implementation; Partnership and accompaniment, Continuous analysis monitoring to ensure learning among partners and with other peace actors, Public Achievement Model (PA) to mobilize and develop youth leadership skills to play a key role in peacebuilding, reconciliation, community dialogues, advocacy at State level, social change, and democracy through engaging the youth and helping them understand issues affecting them within their communities, Annual partners meetings and managing relationships with target groups:
3.2 Scope of Evaluation
The evaluation will gauge the level of community and other stakeholder participation and ownership of the implementation process. It shall identify the intended and unintended outcomes, best practices, lessons learned as well as challenges arising from programme implementation. In addition, the evaluation will come up with conclusions and recommendations.
3.3 The specific evaluation objectives are as follows.
a) To assess the program’s relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and sustainability.
b) To verify the objectives achievement both qualitatively and quantitatively.
c) To verify the activities implementation and the results achievement according to the expectations.
d) To highlight success stories and uncover relevant learnings evident from the program implementation.
3.4 Key Evaluation Questions based on DAC Criteria1
a) Were the activities relevant, and were they implemented in an appropriate, effective, and efficient manner?
b) What were the key program outputs and outcomes, and to what extent did the program activities contribute to the outcomes?
c) What capacity building activities have been undertaken to strengthen implementing partners and how did they contribute to achieving the program objective?
d) To what extent did the program lead to peace building in the areas of intervention?
e) How were women and other vulnerable groups involved in the program?
f) What were the major factors influencing the achievement or non-achievement of the objectives?
Impact:
a) What has happened because of the project? (Intended and unintended impacts, equal opportunities for women and men, improvement of social and economic infrastructure, poverty reduction, cross – sectoral impact or other relevant cross-cutting issues).
b) What real difference has the activity brought about for the beneficiaries? (What would have happened without the activity?
c) How many people have been affected? Planned target group vis à vis really addressed?
d) What are the short and medium term (intended and unintended) outcomes of the project/program?
e) To what extent was the selected target groups reached?
Sustainability of the project:
a) To what extent will the positive impacts or changes of the project (are likely to) continue?
b) Which measures are implemented to support continuity?
c) What are the major factors influencing the achievement or non-achievement of sustainability of the project/ program?
d) To what extend is the program exit strategy relevant?
The results of this external evaluation will be used internally and externally. The report will be made available electronically to AFSC staff, current and potential partners, and the donor (BftW).
4.0 Evaluation Methodology, process, and reporting.
The evaluation will involve participatory methodologies and tools. The evaluator will creatively employ a mix of techniques for data collection and will among others hold meetings and discussions, key informant interviews with the project partners, direct project participants and AFSC staff.
AFSC will make accessible project documents for review and secondary data collection. The documents will include the project proposal and budget, cooperation agreement, partnership documents, baseline study report, activity reports, AFSC internal and donor reports.
5.0 Evaluation process and timeline.
The evaluation will be carried out in the month of June 2022. While the evaluator will propose and negotiate the number of days to carry out the work, the report should be ready by August 2022 Below is a schedule indicating number of days for the various activities to be conducted.

No. Tasks No. of days
1 Analysis of relevant documents, development of evaluation design 1
2 Initial meeting with program team 1
3 Finalize inception report 1
4 Field work 10
5 Compilation and Preparation of preliminary findings 3
6 Review and compilation of implementing organizations/staff feedback 2
7 Preparation of draft report and submission for feedback 2
8 Finalize report taking into consideration AFSC and Bread for the World feedback 4
Total 24

i) Organization/Evaluator Background**
Include the organization and/or individual’s name. Describe the general nature of work and the name of the reviewer that will be conducting the work. Describe any International peacebuilding and development experience, education, skills, and languages. Proposals must include three examples of related work completed and contact information for the organizations served. ii) Statement of Proposed Work
State in succinct terms an understanding of the work to be completed. Describe the methodologies proposed to complete the evaluation and a final report including a time frame for completion of specific tasks, the personnel needed to complete tasks, and expectations for support and assistance from AFSC. Describe the work plan for the review. Proposal may also include other activities deemed necessary by the evaluators and specified within the work plan. Key Deliverables
The following outputs are expected from the consultant:
a) Inception report upon signing a contract; submit an inception report detailing the evaluation design, methodology and data collection tools to be discussed and agreed upon with AFSC
b) Produce a draft report; The end-term evaluation report including stories of change and lessons learnt
c) Final Midterm evaluation report incorporating success stories and comments from the reviewers.
The evaluation report shall be written in English (maximum of 40 pages plus annexes) and must include the following contents: **1) Information Page: Basic organizational data, duration of the project to be evaluated, title of the evaluation, principal of the evaluation (who commissioned the evaluation), contractor of the evaluation and date of the report. 2) Executive summary: tightly drafted, to-the-point, free-standing document (maximum 1.5 pages), including the key issues of the evaluation, main analytical points, conclusions, lessons learnt and recommendations. 3) Introduction: purpose of the evaluation, scope of the evaluation and key questions. Short description of the project to be evaluated and relevant frame conditions. 4) Evaluation design/methodology**
5) Key results/findings: with regard to the questions pointed out in the ToR and also the projects’ specific intervention components. **6) Conclusions: summary based on evidence and analysis. 7) Recommendations: on the findings leading to suggestions to be used for the way forward 8) Lessons learnt: all relevant information beneficial to the partnership between PADD and implementing partner 9) Annexes** (TOR, instruments used, list of persons/organizations consulted, literature and
documentation consulted, copy of any relevant documentation used for the assessment, and CV of the evaluation team).
The evaluator should endeavor to include the most significant change stories. While the evaluators
are expected to work independently, Somalia Program officers and Country Representative will
assist in facilitating access to evaluation participants, documents, solving problems and concerns that
may develop throughout the course of the review. AFSC staff could help arrange transport and accommodation as needed and with prior approval of the Somalia Country Representative. iii) Budget and Deliverables
Provide a detailed budget as well as a description of the specific deliverables that will be submitted and expected schedule of compensation. iv) Evaluation Schedule
The proposal should include a workplan showing how the evaluation will be carried out. Proposal Evaluation Procedure.
After having received the responses from the applicants, a consultant will be selected based on an appropriate selection process in consultation with the Country Representative Somalia, Regional Director for Africa, and the international program support staff as needed. A signed agreement should be processed with the selected consultant and in accordance with AFSC vendor practices. Profile of Evaluation Team
The Evaluation consultant should be fluent in English, spoken and written, have strong analytical skills, good listening and discernment skills, and proven experience in evaluating peace programs. Somali experience would be an added advantage. Expected profile of consultant.
a) Advanced university degree in relevant field.
b) At least 5 -7 years of experience conducting similar assignments.
c) Extensive experience in field research in Somalia.
d) Excellent research, report writing and analytical skills.
e) Well conversant with qualitative methods of research.
f) Proven capacity to write analytically, understandable, and simple reports.
g) Experience of working with secondary data analysis/desk reviews.
h) Experience of developing research tools and carrying out research.
i) Advanced knowledge of the new trends and developments in Somalia.
j) Ability to provide clear guidance to field research teams.
k) Proven ability to deliver against targets and meeting deadlines within short timeframe.
l) Relevant computer skills: Word, Excel, internet, Power point. **