Senior Economic Policy Advisor – Futures Analysis

At the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, we work with political leaders around the world to drive change. We help governments turn bold ideas into reality so they can deliver for their people. We do it by advising on strategy, policy and delivery, unlocking the power of technology across all three. And by sharing what we learn on the ground, so everyone can benefit. We do it to build more open, inclusive and prosperous countries for people everywhere.

We are a global team of nearly 800 changemakers, operating in more than 30 countries, across five continents. We are political strategists, policy experts, delivery practitioners, technology specialists and more. We speak more than 45 languages. We are working on over 100 projects, tackling some of the world’s biggest challenges. We’re all here at TBI to make a difference.

In a world of ever more complex challenges, we believe diversity of background and perspective is a strength. We pride ourselves on a culture that values and nurtures difference. We are dedicated to unlocking potential, not only for the countries we work in but also for each of our team members. No matter where you’re from or who you are, if you’re passionate about the transformative power of progressive politics, we invite you to build a better future with us.

Role Summary

The Senior Economic Policy Advisor for Futures Analysis is a new role in the Economic Policy & Public Finance team within the 80-strong Policy and Politics division in London. We generate forward-looking analysis that shapes public debate, enhances the work of client governments, and supports partnerships which improve people’s lives. Our work is global in nature, but we also develop individual national strategies, including our flagship Future of Britain programme.

This cross-cutting role will help develop the Institute’s policy on a number of fronts. You will bring deep knowledge of futures analysis techniques – including long-term economic forecasting, scenario analysis, and visioning – and be able to apply those to a wide range of policy areas. You will work closely with other TBI policy teams – including on net zero, health, government innovation, geopolitics, and technology – to help assess the economic impact of different policy choices to ensure the overall policy package we develop is coherent and analytically robust. You will also help deliver strategic pieces of work such as developing a 2040 vision for specific countries, testing whether TBI’s existing policy solutions are sufficient to deliver that vision, and producing different scenarios to stress test TBI’s policies to different states of the world. In doing so, you will help ensure TBI is seen as a trusted provider of forward-looking, politically-relevant thought leadership by Heads of Government, Opposition Leaders, Finance Ministers and their teams.

Senior Policy Advisors are the most senior grade in TBI below director level, and suit individuals with significant experience in their field who are able to work with a high degree of autonomy. This role reports to the Director of Economic Policy.

Key Responsibilities

• Long-term economic forecasting – You will construct quantitative economic forecasts that stretch decades into the future that can be used to assess the impact of different policy choices on the UK and other countries. This will include developing high-level macroeconomic projections that combine econometric analysis, trend analysis and expert judgement to explore the impact of new policy initiatives on economic growth and the public finances. It will also include developing more microeconomic analysis to assess the impact of specific policy proposals (e.g. the impact of preventative medicine on future labour force participation). You will be comfortable developing your own bespoke forecast models and judgements as well as synthesising information from other sources and utilising existing forecast models to develop innovative insights to pressing policy problems.
• Scenario analysis – You will be adept at constructing shrewd future scenarios that engage political leaders. These will include both a compelling narrative, which convinces client governments of the plausibility of an alternative future, and quantitative projections to highlight their impact on major economic variables. You will also deploy your scenario development skills internally to help stress test the robustness of TBI’s policy ideas to different states of the world for example by exploring the impact of different structural trends (e.g. climate change, technological progress, demographics) or major risks (e.g. geopolitical fragmentation) on a policy’s effectiveness.
• Policy development and foresight – You will help create a new vision for how society and the economy could look like in the coming decades – using foresight and future visioning techniques – and use those ideas to reverse engineer novel policy solutions that take us from today’s reality to a better future. This will require generating policy solutions yourself as well as working closely with other policy teams and tech specialists to ensure the Institute is tapping the frontier of knowledge.
• Communicating with impact – You will have a flare for communicating economic analysis through high-quality published reports for political leaders and specialist economist audiences. You will help represent the Institute and support TBI’s senior team in external engagements on economic analysis.
• Collaboration – You will take an entrepreneurial approach to your work, seeking out opportunities to work with other policy, advisory and strategy teams across the Institute – to develop TBI’s reputation for economic policy around the world. This will include supporting other teams with futures analysis for specific country clients as well as delivering joint-pieces of research for a global audience.
• Management – You will be responsible for project managing a range of research projects at once. In time, you may line manage one or two members of the Economics Team.

Person Specification

The ideal candidate will be a forward-looking innovative thinker, who is keen to apply their deep skillset in futures analysis techniques to develop radical but practical policy solutions. Given the wide remit of the role, you will be adept at getting up to speed quickly on new issues and be keen to explore new policy areas. We are especially interested in candidates that are both technically gifted and able to think big.

The successful candidate will:

• Have a strong academic background in economics (at least Bachelors degree or equivalent)
• Have significant applied experience of producing quantitative forecasts and scenario analysis in government, a central bank, international institution, policy organisation or the private sector
• Be familiar with a range of futures analysis techniques (e.g. trend analysis, horizon scanning, forecasting, long-term macroeconomic modelling, visioning)
• Have a strong ability to communicate complex economic issues, including to the TBI senior team, political leaders and the media
• Have a collaborative mindset and excellent interpersonal and networking skills.
• Possess a keen interest in politics, policy and technology and a passion for using economic analysis to produce radical but practical progressive policy solutions
• Have a track record of project management

The following attributes are desirable:

• Further study in economics/data science to Masters level (or equivalent) or beyond
• Experience of working closely with political leaders
• Experience managing and developing staff

Please note, it is essential you have an existing right to work in the United Kingdom to apply for this role.

We encourage early applications as we reserve the right, if required, to close this role earlier.

Closing Date:

2024-02-18