PEACE AND CONFLICT ASSESSMENT IN SELECTED DISTRICTS OF LIBYA (TRIPOLI AND SABHA)

1. BACKGROUND

The protracted crisis in Libya with more than ten years of ongoing instability, armed conflict and insecurity continues to aggravate the humanitarian situation in the country. Libya ranks 105 out of 189 countries on the UNDP’s 2019 Human Development Index.[1]

Since the end of the Gaddafi regime in 2011, a multitude of rivalling actors and armed groups have taken advantage of the power vacuum. The UN-led peace process has not been able to accomplish persistent results of national unification. Following an escalation of the armed conflict in 2019, a ceasefire agreement was signed outlining a transition process and scheduling democratic elections for December 2021. However, these elections were postponed indefinitely due to power struggles between the Government of National Unity’s (GNU) interim prime minister Abdul Hamid Al-Dabaiba and Fathi Bashaga, the parallelly elected, opposition party’s candidate. In addition, foreign powers continue to exert influence over the country. Turkey, the UAE and Russia represent key actors supplying arms and backing rivalling local parties, often seen as security guarantors upholding the fragile balance of power.

UN OCHA estimates that 823,000 people in Libya are currently in need of humanitarian assistance as a result of the persisting political instability, a dysfunctional economy, and conflict and insecurity. Approximately half of the people in need are refugees or migrants in or transiting through Libya. While decreasing, the number of IDPs remains high with an estimate of 168,011 individuals, as of January 2022 still displaced and facing heightened insecurity.[2] Key humanitarian needs are identified as 1) protection, 2) access to critical services (i.e., healthcare, education, water and sanitation), and 3) access to basic goods (i.e., food and essential non-food items). Since the beginning of the conflict, essential services, particularly in the health sector, have deteriorated significantly, further exacerbated by the spread of COVID-19. The public health system has collapsed in many places and suffers from fragmentation, poor governance and lack of transparency in the allocation of funds. More than 50% of health care facilities that were functioning in 2019 have since closed, especially in rural areas, mainly because of security threats and funding shortfalls.

Specific vulnerable groups face their own unique challenges. Sexual and reproductive health care is scarce and of poor quality, maternal and postnatal care is inadequate and GBV services are poor and difficult to access, putting women’s health and wellbeing at considerable risk. Women comprise 34% of the population-in-need. Services for people with disabilities, who account for 15% of those in need, are concentrated in large cities and are hardly available in rural areas. Vulnerable groups, particularly women, have limited influence over decision-making processes, which combined with economic and political disadvantage, only deepens their marginalization.

The complex and multifaceted problems in Libya, entrenched in decades of vulnerabilities, fragility, conflicts, economic deterioration and institutional decay, necessitate for an integrated approach. The situation further warrants for programing options that address the root causes while meeting the urgent humanitarian needs of the most vulnerable population.

To contribute to mitigating the impact of the conflict on vulnerable communities, CARE is undertaking a program supported by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) which is implemented jointly with Action Against Hunger (ACF). The project aims at improving the resilience of vulnerable rural communities by ensuring access to rehabilitated, enhanced and sustainable primary and specialized Sexual, Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn and Child health services.

1. OBJECTVE/PURPOSE OF THE ASSESSMENT

The key purpose of this assessment is to understand the causes, dynamics, and actors of conflict(s) in the study area and how these impact on CARE’s humanitarian/development programming. The analysis will also provide quality inputs and a strategic road map for CARE to effectively engage or mainstream peacebuilding and conflict transformation at the community level. Specific objectives of the assessment shall include the following:

• Provide a detailed understanding of the context to ensure that CARE programs do not exacerbate the current conflicts.
• Assess the potential effect of the current conflict on program delivery and its consequences on its target group specially, women, men, girls and boys.
• Provide CARE with detailed assessment report, with key recommendations on minimizing the effect of root/intermediate/proximate factors related to conflict and ways forward on how humanitarian/development programs can be further improved to better respond to the needs and priorities of communities.
• Identify potential synergies and opportunities for mainstreaming peacebuilding and conflict resolution within the scope of current and future programs and approaches.
• Assess the role of economic and resilience development projects in the peace-building process for the targeted groups (girls and boys, women and men).

1. SCOPE OF THE ASSESSMENT

Geographic scope: The geographic scope of the assessment is rural Tripoli and rural Sabha

Technical scope: The assessment should follow the methodological framework of BMZ’s “Peace and Conflict Assessment (PCA)”.[3]The assessment should generate answer to the PCA questions developed in the fact sheet. It is important that the results of the analysis are addressed in the application itself and that concrete contributions to peacebuilding or consideration of risks and Do-No-Harm principles are derived from this analysis.The methodology should guide the in-depth analysis of the conflict, its characteristics, causes, dynamics; and its impact on the target groups. The assessment should also be focusing on identifying opportunities for peace-building initiatives.

1. METHODOLOGY OF THE ASSESSMENT

The assessment should follow a mix of quantitative and qualitative methodologies to collect pertinent data/information. These methodologies include, but not limited to Secondary Data Review; Key Informant Interviews (KII); and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs). The consultant will carry out the analysis according to the ToR and will include necessary tools and exercises to meet study objectives. Detailed methodology, including the design of data-collection tools, formulation of specific questions, sampling, and assessment framework will be developed by the consultant/firm.

1. TASKS

The consultant/firm will undertake the following tasks:

1. Lead the development and design of the methodology, assigning appropriate roles to the overall consultancy and project team.

2. Design the overall assessment questions and develop the survey tools. The assessment questions should be geared towards the key components of the BMZ’s Peace and Conflict Assessment (PCA): main factors leading to conflict, fragility and violence. Needs for peace and security (context analysis); assessment of relevance to peace and security; dealing with risks in the context of conflict, fragility and violence; and monitoring impacts and avoiding negative impacts.

3. Develop the inception report, including data collection tools (including translation into Arabic) and number of KIIs, FGDs to be conducted in target governorates.

4. Conduct desk reviews of secondary information and documents pertinent to the assessment.

5. Obtain feedback on data collection tools from key program staff and finalize draft data collection tools to be tested.

6. Train assessment/survey team members who will also pre-test the data collection tools. If necessary, make final adjustments to data collection tools in consultation with the program team.

7. Collect data from community members, CARE staffs, and key relevant stakeholders using key informant interviews (KII) and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs). Data collection process should take into account – but not limited to – the following key aspects:

   1. Structures, causes, actors, and dynamics of conflict, fragility, and violence;
   2. Identifying the main changes that need to be made for peaceful and inclusive development;
   3. Identifying risks and assess the risks based on contextual, programmatic, institutional, and personnel aspects/parameters;
   4. Recommend mitigation measures/actions (contingency plans) for responding to risks;
   5. Identify unintended impacts might the proposed activities have on the conflict, violence, and fragility; and also, forward plausible recommendation for context-sensitive monitoring of impacts.

8. Data processing (data entry, verification and analysis) and data confidentiality;

9. Gather, collate, clean, and analyze the findings through triangulated multi-level analyses, presenting them in a draft report to be submitted.

10. Presentation of findings and recommendations to and validation by key stakeholders

11. Finalize the report incorporating feedback and submission of final report.

12. DELIVERABLES AND TIMEFRAME

The consultant/firm will produce the following specific deliverables after signing the contract. The consultant will provide regular briefings to CARE in Libya and desk officer of CARE Deutschland and will report his/her preliminary findings before leaving the field.

Deliverable

Days

1. Methodology, including work plan and draft data collection tools

3 days

1. Training of enumerators and finalization of tested data collection tools

3 days

1. Fieldwork and draft report, including all annexes (see below)

15 days

1. Presentation of findings and recommendations to CARE, partners, and/or other key stakeholders for verification/ validation

1 day

1. Final report, including all annexes (see below)

3 days

Total days

25 days

The draft and final report will have the following structure:

1. Executive Summary (max. 2 pages)
2. Introduction
3. Methodology
4. Analysis and findings of the study
5. Conclusions and recommendations
6. Annexes
   1. Relevant maps and photographs of the study areas
   2. Bibliography of consulted secondary sources
   3. Finalized data collection tools (in English and Arabic)
   4. List of key informants
   5. Raw data in an agreed format

The draft and final reports need to comprise the following among others: 1) Comprehensive conflict analysis report that contains in-depth examination of conflict, its characteristics, causes, dynamics and consequences for women, men, girls and boys; 2) Conflict scenarios affecting humanitarian/development program delivery and key recommendation on mitigation and adaptation measures; and 3) Potential synergies and opportunities for mainstreaming peacebuilding and conflict transformation.

The consultant/firm needs to produce three hard copies of all deliverables. The final report will also be provided in electronic copy (both PDF and MS Word format). A full clean dataset in MS excel must also be provided to Care.

The consultancy is expected to take place in the months of March/April in a total of 25 working days, including preparation, evaluation design, lessons learned workshop, report writing and presentation of findings and recommendations to CARE in Libya and CARE Deutschland e.V. and external stakeholders.

1. EXPERTISE REQUIRED

The evaluator should be an experienced and independent consultant with the following expertise:

• Advanced university degree in International Development, Social Sciences or any other related field with a knowledge and expertise in conflict analysis and peacebuilding.
• Demonstrated experience in participatory methods assessments and/or evaluations.
• Excellent understanding of integrated and multi-sectoral programming in conflict affected and fragile areas.
• Have an understanding of operating conditions in an insecure environment, i.e., the conflict and operational context in Libya.
• Advanced analytical and report writing skills.
• Be willing to travel extensively in the working areas of the project.
• Fluent in English and Arabic (both reading and writing).
• Proven access to the data collection area of the assessment.
• Proven experience in collecting quantitative and qualitative data in hard to reach areas and proven data analysis skills.
• Proven digital data collection skills.

[1] UNDP’s Human Development Report (HDR), accessed 2022.

[2] IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM), March 2022. https://dtm.iom.int/reports/libya-%E2%80%94-idp-and-returnee-report-40-december-2021-january-2022.

[3] Peace_and_Conflict_Assessment_Factsheet_BMZ, 2014