Consultant (Severity assessment and estimation models: literature review and analysis) Remote

I. ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT AND SCOPE

The Joint Intersectoral Analysis Framework (JIAF) is a methodologically new approach to analyzing the multiple needs of populations in crisis. Since 2020, countries preparing humanitarian responses within the Humanitarian Programme Cycle have been using this enhanced approach to inform their country ‘Humanitarian Needs Overview’ [HNOs].

The JIAF provides: An estimation of the magnitude of a crisis: how many people have been impacted; An estimation of severity: how severely people have been affected; An analysis of vulnerability and geography: which population groups and geographic areas have been most affected and an explanation of the drivers and impact of the crisis: why and how populations have been affected, and how their needs overlap, co-exist and interrelate. All these outputs look across traditional sectors to give a ‘people-centred’ overview of needs. This shifts the focus from the sectoral-lens of aid providers, to the experience of affected populations.

In 2021 a number of light revisions were made to the JIAF methodology and guidance [JIAF 1.1], and a package of comprehensive JIAF training materials was rolled out globally to OCHA staff and clusters.

Following an independent review of the JIAF methodology in 2021, the JIAF Steering Committee approved a plan to revise and strengthen the current JIAF methodology in time for the release of the 2024 Humanitarian Programme Cycle (June 2023). As part of this revision of the JIAF, a team of specialists from across the humanitarian system will develop a revised methodology for estimating how severely a crisis has impacted different population demographics. Prior to the development of this methodology a desk review and analysis of other existing severity estimation models (from within and external to the humanitarian system) and their relative strengths and weaknesses is required.

These terms of reference set out the tasks required of a consultant to conduct a preliminary literature review and analysis.

II. RESPONSIBILITIES AND ACCOUNTABILITIES

Under the overall supervision of the JIAF Lead Analyst, and in direct coordination with the Technical Methodology Working Group (M-TWG) and the Project Management Unit (PMU), the selected consultant will be responsible for undertaking the analysis of existing literature and research in order to create an evidence base that will inform decisions about the future design of the JIAF severity component.

Outputs and methodology

The consultant will provide a report to the PMU and M-TWG, with the following key outputs:

1. A literature review on severity definitions and measurement methods across multiple disciplines (such as, epidemiology, development studies, economics, geography, social sciences) and across different sectors (such as humanitarian sector, development, disaster risk reduction). The work will include:

2. An analytical literature review of existing theories and models on severity definitions, analysis and application;

3. Identifying different definitions and applications of severity ranking systems across comparable sectors that provide severity ranking models for purposes comparable to those of JIAF 2.0;

4. Identifying threshold indicators (including composite indexes or multi-dimensional indicators) used to identify specific severity levels;

5. Identifying quantitative, qualitative or mixed methods approaches to define, evaluate and rank severity.

6. An assessment of the relevance of existing severity estimation models that could be applied in the development of the JIAF 2.0 severity estimation methodology;

7. Provide an evaluation of internal and external validity of each methodology, model or case study, and potential application to the JIAF 2.0.

The final report will explain the criteria followed in the literature review, the main findings, sources and criteria behind their selection, explaining in detail the pros and cons, and level of applicability of the findings to JIAF 2.0 severity.

III. WORKPLAN

• Expected duration: 60 working days (12 weeks): (Activity/ Timeline / Deliverable)

• Induction meeting with the JIAF Project Management Unit 1st week of March 2022 (date TBD)

• Presentation of detailed work plan including criteria guiding the desk review 16 March 2022 / Detailed work plan

• Delivery of draft report and presentation (desk review) 8 April 2022 / Draft report and presentation (desk review) to sprint team

• Delivery of final desk review report and presentation of final findings 22 April 2022 / Final desk review report and presentation of final findings to M-TWG

• Delivery of draft assessment report on existing methodologies / 6 May 2022/ draft assessment report on existing methodologies.

• Delivery of final report and presentation / 20 May 2022 / Final report and presentation to M-TWG N/A

• Delivery of final report integrating M-TWG queries / 27 May 2022 / Final report integrating M-TWG queries

The consultant conducting the analysis will report to the Lead Analyst, JIAF Project Management Unit. The consultant will also present their work at regular intervals to the JIAF interagency technical methodology working group. The quality of the outputs will need to be in line with the standards set during the induction meeting and regularly monitored through weekly reports.

IV. REQUIRED QUALIFICATIONS AND EXPERIENCE EDUCATION

Postgraduate University Degree (ideally a PhD) in Demography, Political Science, Economics, Law, Social Sciences, Geography, Public Health or related field from an accredited academic institution.

EXPERIENCE

A minimum of 7 years of post-graduation professional experience in research and analysis in academic institutions, recognized research institutes, think tanks, international organizations, or similar entities. • Experience in severity estimation theories, methodologies, and techniques with focus on developing economies, fragile states, humanitarian contexts, data-poor environments. • Records of publications.

V. SKILLS

• Strong analytical skills and ability to rapidly analyze and integrate diverse information from varied sources. • Extensive experience in mixed methods qualitative and quantitative research methods. • Demonstrated skills in writing and producing high-quality analytical reports. • Excellent written and oral presentation skills.

VI. LANGUAGES Required (specify the required knowledge) Desirable Fluency in English Working knowledge of French and/or Spanish is an advantage.